Ethereum is consolidating after a sharp recovery from the $1.5K area and a subsequent breakout above the $2.1K region. The second-largest crypto asset is now trading around $2.64K, with the latest pullback occurring directly inside a major resistance zone. The broader structure remains constructive, although short-term momentum has weakened following the rejection near $2.8K.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
The daily chart shows a clear structural improvement from the June low near $1.5K. ETH subsequently established higher lows and pushed through the $2K-$2.1K area after accelerating higher in August. The latter part was the strongest structural move, but it has led to consolidation in September, which has become an important reference for the current trend.
ETH recently pushed toward $2.8K before reversing. The current level at around $2.64K is therefore sitting inside the marked $2.6K-$2.7K resistance zone. A sustained daily close above this area would strengthen the breakout structure and leave the $3K region as the next immediate resistance.
On the downside, the first important support is around the same consolidation area at $2.4K-$2.5K. A deeper correction, however, could bring ETH toward the $2.1K support region, where the 100-day and 200-day moving averages are also closing in to form a potential bullish crossover. This makes the mentioned area the most important level for the market to hold in order to not fall back into a downward spiral once again.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart provides a clearer picture of the recent consolidation and rejection. ETH rallied from approximately $2.4K and broke sharply higher, reaching the $2.8K area. However, several candles subsequently failed to maintain those highs, producing a pullback toward the $2.6K resistance zone.
The immediate battle is therefore around the same $2.6K-$2.7K zone. ETH is currently trading close to the lower portion of this area after the rejection around $2.8K. A recovery back above $2.7K would put the recent short-term highs around $2.8K back into focus.
Conversely, continued rejection from the current zone could send ETH toward the bullish order block around $2.45K. This is the most important near-term downside area on the chart. Losing it would weaken the short-term breakout structure and could expose the next order block around $2.25K.
The 4-hour RSI has also deteriorated noticeably from its recent overbought readings and is now below the 50 level. This reflects the loss of short-term momentum rather than a confirmed broader trend reversal. For the bullish structure to remain intact, however, ETH would ideally need to stabilize above the $2.5K region.
On-Chain Analysis
The exchange supply ratio measures the proportion of Ethereum’s circulating supply held on exchanges. A declining ratio generally means that a smaller share of the available ETH supply is sitting on exchanges, while a rising ratio indicates that more ETH is being held in exchange wallets.
The chart demonstrates a pronounced decline in Ethereum’s exchange supply ratio over the past couple of years. The metric has fallen from roughly 0.18 in early 2025 to approximately 0.123 currently, even as ETH has recovered back above $2.5K.
The latest move is particularly notable because the exchange supply ratio continues to sit near the lowest levels shown on the chart while ETH has recently accelerated higher. This indicates that the amount of ETH held on exchanges relative to supply has continued to contract during the broader recovery.
From a market-structure perspective, a persistently lower exchange supply ratio can mean that less ETH is immediately available on exchanges for potential selling. However, the metric by itself does not establish that prices must rise, and the current price rejection around $2.8K shows that resistance remains relevant, and that any supply shrink should be accompanied by sufficient demand to push the recovery further.
Source: CryptoPotato
